I’m back from Los Angeles, having posed for new headshots with Shandon Photography, dropped in on a class with Rob Brownstein at An Actor's Space, and addressed a few concerns about changes in the industry. One concern I’ve had since moving from California has been that I might be losing out on major auditions that only post for LA. Am I? No. I was called back on one big-budget film audition that specified a local hire, but by and large casting will look at an audition tape and if they want you they will fly you in. Yes, there are still student films, micro-budget indie films, non-union work, and commercials still not using A.I., but that won’t support most actors. Even worse news, the jobs actors take to support themselves in that high-cost-of-living LA environment are disappearing too. And it’s not just actors stressing, it’s also those working back of camera in production.
All of that has resulted in forecasts of doom for the film industry, like this one, Why Hollywood is Facing a Very Unhappy Ending, from Bloomberg Original Content on YouTube, which has some good data. But what isn't covered are content issues and an examination of new content that is succeeding. Faith-based series, like The Chosen, that have gotten better and better over time. Taylor Sheridan's many excellent series on rugged Americans, like Landman and Yellowstone. Guillermo del Toro's remake of Frankenstein was wonderful. We're buying it on DVD.
There is still an audience for film and series, Hollywood is simply missing the mark on stories. One thing that is driving the uptick on YouTube viewing, for example, is that you can access hundreds of great old movies and TV series. The popularity of this kind of vintage content comes up in Amazon Prime data as well, where half of the most watched shows are 20 years old and older, and may be one reason Amazon is showing a gradual uptick in viewing. Old movies and TV are popular.
Why is that? The old movie moguls loved movies, understood their audience, and pitched films to the broader culture. Studios placing priority almost solely on bottom line profits, as they seem to do today, is a poor way to run a business. Another bad move is that first-run, chain theaters, faced with a downturn in viewers due to poor content, kept raising prices to keep their profits up without asking what their tickets, popcorn, candy, and cokes cost the average family of four. The result is that they just killed their business faster.
Here's what Hollywood screenwriters have forgotten: for a
film to be a "classic" moneymaker requires three things: 1) Characters you recognize and root for who
survive the plot, i.e. don't kill off the hero.
2) Universal values that audiences around the world can relate to:
courage, honesty, honor, responsibility, a sense of duty. You can have nasty villains, but the
hero/heroine has to have those values or who do we root for? 3) Hope over
despair. Not a "happy" ending with everything resolved. A hopeful
ending. Gritty reality we can get on the nightly news.
Think of the films that fit these criteria. Casablanca, The Best Years of Our Lives, Gone with the Wind, The Big Country, Star Wars, True Grit (John Wayne version), Galaxy Quest, Bajrangi Bhaijaan, Rocky, and many, many others, including a little film that's a personal favorite, Shona Auerbach's 2004 indie gem Dear Frankie. These are the kinds of films people watch over and over. I watched the comedy, My Big Fat Greek Wedding, three times in the theater and then bought it on DVD. It is worth noting that despite having no major stars, Greek Wedding is one of the most profitable films, budget to box office, on record, grossing $369 million worldwide on a budget of just $5 million.
So, is Hollywood doomed? Well, consider this: only a few years ago the experts had it that hardcover book publishing was done. Everyone had an eReader. Young people had too short an attention span for books. Today the book publishing industry is thriving, with the global market projected to grow from $156.57 billion in 2025 to $215.89 billion by 2033. Yes, part of this is audiobooks and digital content, but stand-alone bookstores are also seeing a resurgence, driven by new business models. New independent bookstores are opening. There's more community engagement and an interest in shopping for books you can hold in your hands. So much for the experts.
Studio corporate MBAs look for tax incentives and audience, the latter of which has meant pitching to teens, who have other entertainment options, and ignoring older viewers who grew up with the movie-going habit. They also try to engage multiple segments of the market in the same film or series – for example: gays, minorities, feminists, old folks, (and recently) men addicted to porn (ugh) - with the result that they satisfy almost no one and ultimately offend/irritate/turn away many. Creatives look for great storytelling, beautiful cinematography, real actors, and a budget that can easily turn a profit, even when filmmakers focus on one specific audience. And you can make those kinds of movies almost anywhere. Production is getting lean.
An unhappy end? Well, actors still need to figure out new strategies for getting hired while located outside of California, but I'm hopeful. I think we're on the verge of a renaissance in filmmaking. Stay tuned.
